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Wednesday, April 25, 2012

DEFTY Wolfe wave characteristics

I like DEFTY charts because they give a far more clearer picture than the Nifty with perfect touches of trendlines and clear geometric patterns.

Lets take a look at this Wolfe Wave from last year October-November period.


The above was a clear nice Wolfe Wave and the target was hit at point labelled A. But unlike Nifty , DEFTY doesn reverse after hitting the WOLFE WAVE TARGET LINE. Instead it moves futher to point B. Now the from the point 1 till 5 number of days was 20. Now from point 5 , the wolfe wave target line was hit at A in 11 days. SO it took one day more half the number of days it took from 1-5  to hit target line .

Another thing to be noted is how far DEFTY travels even after hitting target line.It travelled 76.4% of the distance from 5 to A.

Heres another Wolfe Wave in Defty from NOVEMBER -December period last year.


Again from point 1 till 5 it is a total of 50 trading days. From point 5 to A , where the target line was hit, it took 26 days, again 1 more than half of the 1-5 days. In this case too the DEFTY doesnt reverse on hitting the target line but continues to travel. In this case AB is just a little bit more than 61.8% of 5-A distance.

And now I think we have another Wolfe wave in DEFTY .


The target line shows that we have a good 450+ point move coming in DEFTY.And 1-5 takes 32 days . So i think the target line is going to be hit by May 18. And just as in the previous 2 cases, DEFTY should move even further by 61.8% to 76.4% . So i think we have a good up move in DEFTY till  4th week of May.

My best guess is that if and when that DEFTY target line is HIT , NIFTY should see previous high of 5630 by 3rd week of May. And considering DEFTY extends its journey like before, Nifty has a good chance of reaching 5885--5930 by May 25th.

Taking a look at the latest NIFTY charts , it found support exactly at the trend line joining 5074 and 5134 lows. Also at the 89 SMA. Awaiting bullish crossover of 89 and 233  sma(red ).


Today is the 89th day from the december 4531 lows and this should be significant.

I include the dollar chart as well as I have analysed DEFY. The trend line from September 1st last year has been broken and its almost 8 months ( fibo number) . This has increasedthe chances of a significant trend change in the dollar.


We have big IPO coming up in the neighbourhood . So atleast till then I dont expect major trouble for world stocks

2 comments:

  1. INTERSTING once again;
    My post
    http://lalitlk-lalit-lk.blogspot.in/2012/04/nifty-wolfe-wave-analysis-post-event.html
    is in similar vain.

    ReplyDelete